In my opinion, the main competition for the 6-3 Colts making the playoffs are the 4-5 Chargers and the 4-5 Bengals. 4-5 Miami could work into the mix, however, they still play San Francisco, Seattle, and New England (twice against NE).
I’m looking at this under the assumption the Colts can win 3 more games. Kansas City and Tennessee are must wins, Getting one from either Buffalo or Detroit has a good chance, and in the event they are locked for a bye, the final game against Houston could fall to the Colts. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked, I am not expecting a win in New England.
I think that leaves a reasonable expectation for the Colts to finish at 9-7 or possibly 10-6.
Baltimore and Pittsburgh actually have a strong influence on the Colts chances. With both having remaining games against San Diego and Cincinnati, the Colts need them to do their job. Adding 2 losses respectively, would leave 9-7 as the best outcome for either San Diego or Cincinnati. This might change considering Roethlisberger’s injury and Cincinnati’s impressive showing last weekend.
To add to the drama, San Diego and Cincinnati will meet Dec 2 in Southern California.